The seven challenges for prediction in talent assessment:
Defining success and the outcomes of prediction is problematic.
The dynamics of cause and consequence are confused in the search for predictors.
The problem of small and unrepresentative samples in much research that claims prediction.
Prediction in talent management is complex and our theories of performance may not reflect this reality.
The self fulfilling prophecy is a predictive smoke screen.
The jingle jangle fallacy creates much noise and the predictive signal is weak.
The evaluation of predictive accuracy which makes claims of validity difficult to evaluate.
This 26 page article discusses each of them in details and presents 52 references for further reading. This is a MUST HAVE for all those who are interest in Predictive Validity of Talent Assessments.